Market intelligence firm TrendForce has issued a staggering revision to its semiconductor price forecasts. According to their latest report, the tech industry is bracing for a massive price hike in the first quarter of 2026, with DRAM prices expected to soar by 90–95%, while NAND Flash (used in SSDs) is projected to climb by 55–60%.
The Perfect Storm: High Demand & Supply Constraints
The primary drivers behind this unprecedented price surge include:
Strong PC Shipments: A significant rebound in PC sales at the end of 2025 has depleted existing inventories.
Server & Cloud Demand: Cloud service providers and server manufacturers are aggressively securing long-term contracts to ensure supply, creating a "bidding war" for available chips.
DDR4/DDR5 Crisis: Standard PC RAM is expected to be the hardest hit, with prices potentially skyrocketing by 105–110% in just one quarter.
If TrendForce’s predictions hold true, Q1 2026 will go down in history as the fastest and most aggressive price escalation the memory market has ever witnessed.
The main reason for the surge in general-purpose DRAM (DDR5) prices is that major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have diverted production capacity to manufacture HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for Nvidia's AI chips, reducing the supply of RAM for general-purpose computers.
The end-of-support for Windows 10 in late 2025 is forcing a massive number of organizations to quickly upgrade their computers to newer versions supporting Windows 11, most of which require higher-capacity RAM (minimum 16GB-32GB), creating a ripple effect in global RAM demand.
Electricity costs in South Korea and Taiwan, major production bases, increased last year, coupled with higher raw material costs such as neon gas and silicon wafers due to geopolitical issues.
For those planning to build a computer, analysts recommend delaying purchases until the second half of 2026 or considering buying used SSDs/RAM with warranties to avoid the projected retail price increases.
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Source - TrendForce
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