Oil supplies from Russia, Iraq, and Iran could face disruptions due to geopolitical tensions.

Global Oil Supply at Risk: Rising Tensions in Russia, Iraq, and Iran Amid U.S. Policy Shifts
The global oil market is facing potential supply disruptions as geopolitical tensions escalate across several major producing nations, including Russia, Iraq, and Iran.

Escalating Conflicts in Russia and the Black Sea
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a tanker bound for Russia was recently targeted by a drone strike in the Black Sea. The vessel was forced to seek assistance from the Turkish Coast Guard and divert its course.

On the legislative front, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham revealed that President Donald Trump is prepared to allow Congress to consider a sanctions bill targeting countries that continue to do business with Russia. If passed, this legislation could significantly stifle Russian oil exports to the global market.

Iraq and the Lukoil Dilemma
In Iraq, the Cabinet has approved a plan to transfer operations at the West Qurna 2 oil field to state control. This move is a strategic attempt to avoid disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions against Lukoil, a major Russian energy firm. West Qurna 2 is currently the largest oil field operated by Lukoil in Iraq.

Civil Unrest in Iran
Iran, which accounts for roughly 2% of the global oil supply, is facing widespread domestic instability. NetBlocks, an internet monitoring group, reported a nationwide internet blackout on Thursday as protests against economic decline continue to sweep the country. Analysts warn that prolonged unrest poses a significant risk to Iran's export capabilities.

Notably, both Iraq and Iran remain among the largest producers within OPEC, trailing only Saudi Arabia.

The Venezuelan Re-emergence and U.S. Strategy
Investors are closely watching Venezuela as the U.S. government shifts its energy strategy in the Americas.

Diplomatic Moves: Foreign embassies in Venezuela are reportedly preparing for visits from U.S. and European oil executives following a $2 billion crude oil import agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Asset Seizure: Simultaneously, reports indicate that the U.S. has seized a Russian tanker linked to Venezuela. This is part of the Trump administration's broader plan to control regional oil flows and pressure the Venezuelan government into a strategic alliance.

White House Summit: Today, top executives from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are scheduled to meet with President Trump at the White House. The discussion will focus on restoring Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and the role of U.S. companies in that recovery.

The Strategic Importance of Venezuela
As a founding member of OPEC, Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, or approximately 17% of the global total. The potential reintegration of Venezuelan oil under U.S.-backed initiatives could represent a major shift in the global energy landscape.